Dabblin' With the Cockspur: Documented Proof
posted by Roger Olivieri, 1/28/2009 06:25:00 PM
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A month ago I wrote about Devan Downey’s stamp on the Gamecock program and how he’ll go down as one of the greats. In the BLOG, I compared his numbers versus minutes per game between last season and now.
Amazingly, though his minutes per game had dropped significantly (5), his other statistics improved. From this I presumed his fresh legs allowed him to impact a game more.
Keeping this theory in mind as the Gamecocks look better than they have in a long time, I started running the same tests for each and every player. A trend started to develop proving it was more than just fresh legs – it was a gross misuse of key pieces.
Examining the performance of every player on the team from this year to last, there were certain players who had to be thrown out of the equation for good reasons:
Mike Holmes, Austin Steed and Sam Muldrow were all true freshmen last season; their numbers were obviously going to increase this year.
Branden Conrad’s name was thrown out for some could argue his significant minutes were a direct result of Brandis Raley-Ross’ injury. For that same reason (injury), I’ve eliminated Raley-Ross from the equation.
Mitchell Carter and Robert Wilder, though playing more than last year, also were eliminated due a limited body of work.
Left with a core group of four Gamecocks who were neither too young nor injured, the differences may jump off the page at you.
Averages per game are grouped together in the first five rows while averages per minute are in the next five rows. The Downey phenomena I’d unveiled a month ago had quickly become the Darrin Horn/Gamecock phenomena – simply stated, using the players properly.
Amazingly, though his minutes per game had dropped significantly (5), his other statistics improved. From this I presumed his fresh legs allowed him to impact a game more.
Keeping this theory in mind as the Gamecocks look better than they have in a long time, I started running the same tests for each and every player. A trend started to develop proving it was more than just fresh legs – it was a gross misuse of key pieces.
Examining the performance of every player on the team from this year to last, there were certain players who had to be thrown out of the equation for good reasons:
Mike Holmes, Austin Steed and Sam Muldrow were all true freshmen last season; their numbers were obviously going to increase this year.
Branden Conrad’s name was thrown out for some could argue his significant minutes were a direct result of Brandis Raley-Ross’ injury. For that same reason (injury), I’ve eliminated Raley-Ross from the equation.
Mitchell Carter and Robert Wilder, though playing more than last year, also were eliminated due a limited body of work.
Left with a core group of four Gamecocks who were neither too young nor injured, the differences may jump off the page at you.
Averages per game are grouped together in the first five rows while averages per minute are in the next five rows. The Downey phenomena I’d unveiled a month ago had quickly become the Darrin Horn/Gamecock phenomena – simply stated, using the players properly.
The Significant Numbers (on the graph above)
Negative numbers (red) show a drop from last season. Other than minutes, the cumulative statistics on a per game basis may drop, but this is normal playing significantly less minutes. One has to break the output down to the minute to show absolute output. The orange numbers are insignificant – meaning one assist or turnover here or there isn’t enough to alarm anyone.
Playing 5.6 less minutes per game, Downey actually ups his per minute points by 13 percent. Amazingly, he’s found a way to be peskier on the defensive end. Though he’s stealing less, his per minute rate is higher than last season.
Fredrick also sees a noticeable difference with fresh legs (3.6 less minutes per game) as his points per minute increase eight percent and per game by one free throw. His rebounds, per minute and per game, have increased as well.
Archie plays 3.7 less minutes per game while adding 1.31 rebounds per game to his average. His rebounds per minute and points per minute have both increased by seven percent.
Perhaps the most noticeable jump comes from Baniulis as the 6’7” Lithuanian now plays over 20 minutes per game (an increase of 1.4 minutes per game). In those 90 extra seconds Baniulis has found a way to increase his ppg average by 2.4 and his rebounds per game by almost 82 percent.
Even more impressive, Baniulis’ field goal percentage has risen significantly. More minutes usually means more missed shots, equating to a lower percentage. Baniulis has increased his field goal percentage an amazing 12 percent while his three point percentage has sky rocketed over 10 percent.
Even harder to comprehend is the skeleton crew Horn inherited. Undermanned without Dwayne Day or Chad Gray to infuse nearly thirty minutes per game like last season, Horn put his trust in Dave Odom bench ghosts Branden Conrad, Robert Wilder and Mitchell Carter.
When healthy, all three have eaten minutes respectfully (and in some cases thrived).
Day shot 37 percent from the field and 25 percent from beyond the three point line. Of the regulars, the senior was easily the worst in both categories. There he was though starting all 16 SEC games.
Rationale
Of course, Horn’s up-tempo style of play has a lot to do with some averages going up, but not everything.
Fresh legs? Maybe, but that’s something that will probably show its benefit later in the season.
Better conditioning? Maybe a little, but if this were the only explanation we’d see Downey’s ridiculous 37.4 minute per game average from last season stay the same – or worse, increase.
Baniulis’ case is the perfect example. Played as a spot-up shooter his first two years on the court, it turns out he can do more. In doing more, ironically, he’s become a better spot-up shooter.
The Horn Effect
Perhaps the exact reason will never be pin-pointed. Like Coach Horn says, “There’s more to basketball than just points scored. There are the little things.”
Winning three of the first five conference games helps accept the vague answer.
You’ve heard the numbers by now, but they really need to be boasted about even more. This season’s 14 victories match last season’s total. This season’s three home SEC victories surpass last season’s total.
If the current trend continues and the Gamecocks can find a way to win nine SEC games, “the new guy” might pick up SEC Coach of the Year honors in his first season in Columbia.
Playing 5.6 less minutes per game, Downey actually ups his per minute points by 13 percent. Amazingly, he’s found a way to be peskier on the defensive end. Though he’s stealing less, his per minute rate is higher than last season.
Fredrick also sees a noticeable difference with fresh legs (3.6 less minutes per game) as his points per minute increase eight percent and per game by one free throw. His rebounds, per minute and per game, have increased as well.
Archie plays 3.7 less minutes per game while adding 1.31 rebounds per game to his average. His rebounds per minute and points per minute have both increased by seven percent.
Perhaps the most noticeable jump comes from Baniulis as the 6’7” Lithuanian now plays over 20 minutes per game (an increase of 1.4 minutes per game). In those 90 extra seconds Baniulis has found a way to increase his ppg average by 2.4 and his rebounds per game by almost 82 percent.
Even more impressive, Baniulis’ field goal percentage has risen significantly. More minutes usually means more missed shots, equating to a lower percentage. Baniulis has increased his field goal percentage an amazing 12 percent while his three point percentage has sky rocketed over 10 percent.
Even harder to comprehend is the skeleton crew Horn inherited. Undermanned without Dwayne Day or Chad Gray to infuse nearly thirty minutes per game like last season, Horn put his trust in Dave Odom bench ghosts Branden Conrad, Robert Wilder and Mitchell Carter.
When healthy, all three have eaten minutes respectfully (and in some cases thrived).
Day shot 37 percent from the field and 25 percent from beyond the three point line. Of the regulars, the senior was easily the worst in both categories. There he was though starting all 16 SEC games.
Rationale
Of course, Horn’s up-tempo style of play has a lot to do with some averages going up, but not everything.
Fresh legs? Maybe, but that’s something that will probably show its benefit later in the season.
Better conditioning? Maybe a little, but if this were the only explanation we’d see Downey’s ridiculous 37.4 minute per game average from last season stay the same – or worse, increase.
Baniulis’ case is the perfect example. Played as a spot-up shooter his first two years on the court, it turns out he can do more. In doing more, ironically, he’s become a better spot-up shooter.
The Horn Effect
Perhaps the exact reason will never be pin-pointed. Like Coach Horn says, “There’s more to basketball than just points scored. There are the little things.”
Winning three of the first five conference games helps accept the vague answer.
You’ve heard the numbers by now, but they really need to be boasted about even more. This season’s 14 victories match last season’s total. This season’s three home SEC victories surpass last season’s total.
If the current trend continues and the Gamecocks can find a way to win nine SEC games, “the new guy” might pick up SEC Coach of the Year honors in his first season in Columbia.
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Roger Olivieri. Roger began working with GamecockCentral in December of 2007. He currently serves as the site's chief videographer. He may be reached by email at roger(at)gamecockcentral.com. Replace (at) with @.